Over the last month we ( Aegean Boat Report) have registered a shift in routes used by people seeking international protection in the Aegean Sea.

Normally, people crossing from Turkey towards the Greek islands have had Lesvos, Chios, Samos and Kos as their main destination. Now, smaller islands seem to get more arrivals.

Why this is happening now could have severe explanations, but we believe more focus and surveillance by Greek authorities and the European Border and Coast Guard Agency Frontex, around the bigger islands is the main reason.

This, together with a more active approach by the Turkish authorities to actually try to stop boats from crossing into Greek waters, and the fact that they are moving Afghans away from coastal areas in the North Aegean, has drastically reduced crossings.

We are now in almost daily contact with people arriving on islands like Ikaria, Fournoi, Patmos, Leipsoi, Nisyros, Tilos, Pserimos and Kalimnos, previously this was the exception, now it’s starting to move towards the rule.

This might seem like a strange change, since people arriving on the main islands don’t face the risk of being pushed back as they previously did. The “hunt” for new arrivals by masked men suddenly stopped after the Pylos shipwreck, and as far as we have been able to document, all arrivals on these main islands, are now taken to camps and given the opportunity to apply for international protection.

But this is many times not the case on these smaller islands: especially the less populated ones. So why would people take the chance of going there, if the risk of being pushed back is higher?

The problem isn’t that they fear being pushed back after they arrive on a Greek island, they fear more being pushed back at sea before they arrive. The risk of being pushed back from smaller islands, especially deserted ones, is a genuine risk that we have documented, but it seems they are willing to take this risk, because the risk of being pushed back at sea around the main islands is much higher.

On and around the main islands the surveillance has drastically increased over the last years, more eyes are watching the sea area, not only those of Greek authorities, but also of Frontex, from land, air and sea. The chance of getting across the sea border in these areas was previously very low. Now, after Turkish authorities have intensified their efforts to stop boats in these areas, it’s almost impossible to get across undetected. The chance of getting across in these main areas has gone from 70% to under 30% in just a month. We believe this is no coincidence, and is suspected to be firmly linked to a deal made between Greece and Turkey, supported by the EU Commission. What Turkey has been offered is so far unknown, but it’s highly unlikely that Turkey would settle for nickels and dimes.

To understand this shift in movement, you need to have some understanding of how smugglers operate in Turkey. It’s not as if the people in the boats have much say in the decision on whether they are sent towards a big island or a small one: they basically do as they are told and hope for the best.

Smugglers only get paid if they successfully manage to get their “product” transported from point A to point B. If for some reason the transport is stopped and returned, the smugglers don’t receive payment, and are given a new opportunity to successfully deliver their services. If they are unsuccessful several times, the customer can take their money to another smuggler, leaving the previous smuggler with the costs of boats, engines, petrol etc. without getting paid. This is of course not good for business, and if too many obstacles are hindering their work, they change strategy. This is what we believe has happened.

Crossing attempts in the Aegean Sea the last month has gone down by more than 50%, from 246 cases in February, to 119 in March. We normally would have expected that pushback cases, and especially cases where people are pushed back in life rafts, would follow a similar pattern. On the contrary, despite the fact that crossing attempts have gone down by more than 50%, cases in which people have been forced into life rafts and left helplessly drifting in the Aegean Sea have not decreased, but instead increased 8% compared to February.

It’s a worrying development worth noting. It’s that smugglers in Turkey are now targeting these smaller islands as their transport destinations, not out of the kindness of their hearts and a genuine concern for their customers wellbeing, but out of necessity to make money off the back of vulnerable people, whose routes towards safety in Europe have been firmly closed by European authorities.

People are now arriving on islands which are not equipped or prepared to handle increased arrivals, nor have the necessary infrastructure and resources to quickly initiate rescue operations, if boats are in distress.

None of the main humanitarian organizations have staff on these smaller islands. There is basically no ground support in place to support them with shelter, food, clothes and medical attention. Also, the routes towards these islands are longer: any crossing in a rubber boat towards any island is very dangerous, and the more time people must stay in these fragile boats, the higher the risk of something going terribly wrong.

We fear – in fact, we are certain – that more lives will be unnecessarily lost if smugglers continue to use these longer routes.

The only solution to this problem, and the only way to put smugglers in Turkey out of business, is not to put in place more obstacles, but to open legal safe pathways into Europe for people seeking international protection.

The smuggling industry in Turkey making billions from people’s suffering, is a product of our time, it was not created in a vacuum. Smugglers have existed as long as people and states have tried to hinder the movement of goods and people: for better or for worse, they are serving a purpose, responding to and providing for, a demand in the market, not from kindness, but necessity. Any market is driven by a very simple principle, supply and demand, one will not exist without the other. We can in this case ask who or what created the demand, and the answer isn’t rocket science.

When we put up walls and fences, we at the same time create an opportunity for people to make money. We might try to say “we are not responsible”, and directly this is in many cases true, but indirectly we are very much responsible: anyone denying this fact is delusional.

Throughout history people have, for various reasons, wandered this Earth, and over time moved from one area to the next, following mainly resources and climate change.

Nothing has changed, people are still in need of finding new places to live, mostly out of necessity, as a result of war and climate change, but now we have put up fences and walls to try to hinder people from finding safety, with the excuse of self-preservation and protection.

In the short term, it might seem to be “working”, but in the long run nothing can stop people from moving. If determined or desperate enough, they will always find a way, a more dangerous and deadly way, but in the end it will not matter, because they have no other alternative if they want to live.

It is well beyond time that the Greek government, and all governments, including the EU, recognised this.

Not only are the policies of ‘deterrence’ incredibly expensive, they are absolutely failing. Of course they are: by increasing the risk and reality of mass death on the sea, they are efforts to force the entire flow of human history to change.

They are doomed to always fail. For the good of our moral health, for the good of our economic health, and for the welfare of men, women and children like ourselves, we have to change.

In place of our litany of failure, at the cost of tens of thousands of deaths, we must set up safe routes, in affordable or free transport, for those who need it, to save lives, save enormous amounts of money, and put smugglers out of business.