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113 million Africans will be forced by climate change to migrate by 2050
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Up to 5% of Africa’s population — potentially 113 million people — may have to leave their homes by 2050 because of the effects of climate change, a figure that is up from 1.5% today.
The majority of this movement will happen within countries, rather than across borders, according to the recent African Shifts report.
The report, produced by the Africa Climate Mobility Initiative (ACMI), documents the realities of climate-forced migration in Africa and possible scenarios for future climate displacement.
Climate mobility refers to the movement of people pushed by the adverse effects of sudden or slow-onset climate impacts.
Within the next 30 years, the Intergovernmental Authority on Development (IGAD) region in East Africa, an area of 5.2 million square kilometres that comprises Djibouti, Eritrea, Ethiopia, Kenya, Somalia, South Sudan, Sudan and Uganda, could see up to 10% of the population — about 55 million people — forced to move within their countries.
Rural areas will see farmers leaving rain-fed lowlands and pastoral lands, the report said. “At the high end, pastoral areas in Rwanda could see around three million people leave due to adverse climate impacts. Meanwhile, the population in Ethiopia’s pasturelands could grow by 279 000 people by 2050 due to climate mobility.”
Along the coasts, sea level rise and flooding will force people to move out of low-lying areas. Coastal areas around Africa could lose up to 2.5 million people by 2050 from steady sea level rise, flooding and other climate stressors.
Africa’s cities will be dynamic hotspots of climate mobility. “Cities will continue to grow swiftly, although, on a continental scale, climate impacts could force up to 4.2 million people out of urban areas by 2050.”
Only when extreme social or environmental conditions force a second migration do people cross over into another country.
Between 2020 and 2050, the movement of people across borders in response to climate change is expected to be relatively small. Across Africa, 500 000 people — and potentially up to 1.2 million — are projected to migrate to a neighbouring country.
Most cross-border movement will be in Southern Africa, where mobility between neighbouring countries is forecast to increase because of favourable climate impacts on crop yields that could enable people to undertake longer journeys.
About 200 000 to 800 000 people could be moving between neighbouring countries in the region by 2050. At the country level, Zimbabwe, Malawi, Uganda and Zambia could see the largest increases in emigration from climate impacts, while South Africa, Zimbabwe, Mozambique, Botswana and Kenya are forecast to see the largest increases in climate-driven immigration.
For people facing climate stressors on the continent, climate mobility is likely to be a “response of last resort. Most Africans are attached to their land and homes and don’t aspire to leave their communities. Half of the men and 40% of the women surveyed expressed hope and optimism for the future, despite experiencing severe climate disruptions,” according to the report.
For those who have relocated or consider moving, climate stressors are usually not the primary reason. “Climate impacts generally act alongside other drivers such as the search for education and job opportunities, access to livelihoods and social services and the draw of family ties.”
The report argues for an approach that anticipates climate mobility, giving people, institutions and governments time to prepare for such events, said Sarah Rosengaertner, the global lead for knowledge and practice at the Global Centre for Climate Mobility, and Nick Simpson, senior adviser and Africa lead for knowledge and practice at the ACMI.
“Informed migration in full knowledge of climate risks can, when well supported by local, national, and regional policies, help reduce vulnerability, build resilience, and prevent future loss and damage.”
They added that the report notes that climate change is already having a significant effect on mobility patterns in Africa, “with many people being forced to move due to droughts, floods, and other climate-related events”.
“People-positive adaptation” that plans for climate mobility is required to strengthen the resilience, Rosengaertner and Simpson said.
“If properly managed, it could enable some people to stay where they are rooted, help those who aspire to move to do so in a safe and informed manner, support communities that receive migrants, and anticipate and plan for situations where whole communities may need to relocate.”
This could include providing access to climate information, boosting climate literacy, training, promoting sustainable livelihoods, improving infrastructure and services and ensuring that the rights and needs of migrants are protected, they said.
Training could be offered to young people, who are typically the first to move, to give them the green skills needed to make a positive contribution to their new locations.
The report’s findings also highlight the need for investment in research and data collection to better understand the dynamics of climate-induced mobility in Africa.
The international community’s response to the links between climate change and migration remains “hamstrung by the fact that this issue is nobody’s mandate”, Rosengaertner and Simpson said. “The response remains fragmented between processes on climate change, migration, human rights, development, and peace and security.”
The most explicit commitments on climate migration can be found in the Global Compact for Migration, but the compact is non-binding and only addresses international migration, not movements within countries, they pointed out.
Africa is ahead of other regions when it comes to the availability of legal frameworks that could be mobilised to address the issue of climate mobility.
“The Organisation of African Unity Convention on Refugees provides protection for people fleeing ‘events seriously disturbing public order’ in either part or the whole of their country of origin or nationality. The Kampala Convention on Internally Displaced Persons recognises ‘natural or human-made disasters’ as a ground for recognising protection needs.”
Member states of IGAD are leading the way by ratifying the Protocol on Free Movement in the IGAD region.
They argue that these provisions could inform ongoing discussions in other regional economic communities on ways to protect citizens. “The main challenge is ensuring wide ratification and effective application of existing instruments at national levels.”
Many African countries face significant resource constraints, which can limit their ability to invest in climate-resilient infrastructure, social services, and other adaptation measures, Simpson and Rosengaertner said. Laws and policies on migration, refugees and displacement have a part to play in addressing climate mobility in the continent.
Poverty and inequality make people more vulnerable to climate change.
“Low levels of climate literacy across Africa are likely to affect people’s decision-making in relation to mobility, and thereby their vulnerability to climate change, whether they stay or move. This connection between understanding climate risks and climate mobility is important because planned movements tend to have more positive outcomes than forced or reactive movements.”
Improving awareness of climate change and climate risks, together with access to localised climate information help people make informed decisions on how to cope and adapt, including by moving, either temporarily or permanently.
News
New rescue vessel Aurora 2: Sea-Watch’s response to political blockades of civilian sea rescue
Sea-Watch is putting a new rescue vessel into service: With the Aurora 2, the organization is responding to the repeated detentions of civilian rescue ships by the Italian authorities. Now, Sea-Watch will remain operational even when one of its ships is detained. While one ship is blocked in port, the other will be available to carry out rescue missions. The far-right government’s strategy of limiting rescue operations through arbitrary detentions has therefore failed.
Julia Winkler, spokesperson for the organization Sea-Watch:
“Italy is detaining rescue ships to stop people from being rescued. With the Aurora 2, we are making sure this strategy fails. If one of our vessels is detained, the other will be ready to save lives. By expanding our fleet, we are fighting back against the far-right Italian government’s efforts to obstruct civilian search and rescue at sea.”
In the Mediterranean, speed is a matter of life and death. Every distress case is a race against time. That is why Sea-Watch operates not only the large vessel Sea-Watch 5 but also a smaller, faster ship—the Aurora. The Aurora reaches top speeds of up to 25 knots, allowing it to quickly reach people in distress at sea. With the Aurora 2, the organization is now specifically expanding its operational capabilities.
The acquisition of the Aurora 2 is a direct response to the far-right Italian government’s policy of systematically detaining civilian rescue ships. Since 2023, the Meloni cabinet has detained civilian sea rescue ships in port more than forty times. As a result, the entire civilian fleet has lost more than 900 days of operational time. The Aurora has also been blocked five times already. Italian courts subsequently overturned the rulings on several occasions. However, by the time the respective court decisions were issued, the Aurora had lost a total of 113 days of operational time.
With the Aurora 2, Sea-Watch is specifically countering this strategy. If one of the ships is detained, the other can continue to set sail and rescue people in distress at sea. In this way, the organization ensures its independence from bureaucratic blockades and guarantees the continuation of its rescue operations.
The detentions of civil search and rescue vessels are politically motivated and cost lives. The Mediterranean is one of the deadliest borders in the world. More than 34,000 people have been reported dead or missing since 2014. The actual number is estimated to be significantly higher. With its new ship, the Aurora 2, Sea-Watch can continue to quickly rescue people from drowning — even if one of its ships is blocked by the far-right Italian government.
Sea-Watch is part of the Justice Fleet, an alliance whose members are committed to upholding human rights and international maritime law. Its members refuse to comply with instructions provided for in the so-called Piantedosi Decree that conflict with international law and human rights obligations and are primarily intended to hinder rescue operations. As a result, their vessels are regularly detained by the Italian authorities. In recent months, Italian courts have overturned detention orders imposed on several Justice Fleet vessels in summary proceedings. Rulings on the overall legality of the Decree are still pending.
News
Sea-Watch strongly criticises EU response following attack on Sea-Watch 5

In response to the attack on the Sea-Watch 5 on Monday, 11 May 2026, the European Commission stated at its press conference on Wednesday, 12 May 2026, that EU cooperation with Libyan actors “prevented further violence.” Sea-Watch condemns this portrayal as a grotesque distortion of reality. Without the political, financial, and operational support of the EU, the so-called Libyan coast guard would neither possess boats nor the necessary infrastructure to operate at sea.
Julia Winkler, spokesperson for Sea-Watch:
“The EU has been working closely with actors in Libya for years, who are accused of committing the most serious crimes against people on the move, equipping them and enabling their operations at sea. Against this background, claiming that this very cooperation prevents violence is an absurd distortion of reality and is nothing short of cynical.”
A Commission spokesperson responded to questions regarding the violent attack on the Sea-Watch 5 on Monday, 11 May 2026, stating that it cannot be determined how many further attacks may have been prevented precisely due to consistent engagement (from 4:39). After the crew had rescued people in distress in international waters, Libyan militias opened fire and threatened to forcibly return the ship and those on board to Libya.
The attackers identified themselves as so-called Libyan Coast Guard. During the attack, the vessel involved was accompanied by the Murzuq 662 – a Bigliani-class ship handed over by Italy in June 2023 to Libyan actors as part of the EU–Libya cooperation framework SIBMMIL. Later the same day, the Sea-Watch 5 was also followed by the Ras Jadir 648, another vessel transferred by Italy to Libyan actors in May 2017.
Despite mayday calls being issued, neither Germany nor Italy, nor the EU naval mission EUNAVFOR MED IRINI provided assistance at sea on the day of the attack. On the contrary, on the same day the EU emphasised its intentions to expand cooperation and funding for Libyan actors in eastern Libya. These groups have been documented for years as responsible for torture, sexual violence, and kidnappings of people on the move. Without European support, such structures would not be operational in their current form.
For years, Sea-Watch and international organisations, including the United Nations, have documented serious human rights violations by Libyan militias and coast guard units with which they are closely linked. The political and legal responsibility of European actors is subject to ongoing international legal scrutiny. In 2022, the European Center for Constitutional and Human Rights filed a criminal complaint against senior representatives of the EU and its Member States for alleged crimes against humanity in connection with the EU–Libya cooperation.
News
Court annuls 20-day administrative detention imposed on Ocean Viking
SOS MEDITERRANEE has welcomed the recent decision of the Court of Chieti in Italy, which fully annuls the 20-day administrative detention imposed on the Ocean Viking in November 2023, together with the related fine and all associated sanctioning measures.
On 15 November 2023, Italian authorities detained the Ocean Viking in Ortona for 20 days and imposed a financial penalty under Decree Law No. 1/2023, known as the “Piantedosi Decree”. The case relates to a rescue operation conducted on 11 November 2023 in the Libyan Search and Rescue Region, during which our rescue ship rescued 34 people from a boat in distress after repeated unsuccessful attempts to obtain effective coordination from the Libyan maritime authorities.
In its first instance decision, the Court clearly confirmed that the Ocean Viking’s rescue operation was lawful, and that the captain “was faced with the necessity to intervene without delay” to protect human life. It also underscored the absence of effective coordination by the Libyan authorities, recognizing that the Ocean Viking was “the only vessel to intervene” to fulfill the duty to rescue at sea.
The judgment also reaffirmed that international maritime obligations under the UNCLOS, SOLAS and SAR Conventions prevail when human lives are at risk, and that sanctions cannot be imposed where state coordination is absent or inadequate. The decision recalls the Italian Constitutional Court’s ruling n°101/2025, which confirmed that national laws on sea rescue must comply with international law. In other words, no national law can be in contrast with the duty of saving lives at sea.
“This ruling confirms what we have consistently stated since November 2023: the Ocean Viking acted in full compliance with international maritime law and in the clear fulfilment of its maritime obligations,” said Soazic Dupuy, Director of Operations at SOS MEDITERRANEE. “Humanitarian rescue organisations must never be penalised for doing what authorities fail to do: ensuring timely and effective rescue for people in distress.” she concludes.
2026 is already among the deadliest years of the last decade. People continue to go missing at sea while the Italian government doubles down on efforts to prevent Search and Rescue NGOs from operating. This week, the Senate began discussing a new migration package that includes Provisions aimed at preventing Search and Rescue NGOs from entering Italian waters, yet another attempt to obstruct lifesaving operations.
On Saturday 16th, the captain of the Sea-Watch 5 was accused of facilitating irregular migration after completing a rescue operation following which the Libyan Coast Guard opened fire.
Despite repeated court rulings confirming the legality of civil rescue operations, Search and Rescue NGOs continue to face legal and administrative harassment for saving lives at sea. People in distress cannot wait for justice while lifesaving assistance is obstructed for political purposes.
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