2.8billion people risk exposure to heatwaves by 2090

A new analysis from the International Organization for Migration’s (IOM) Global Data Institute (GDI), says up to 2.8 billion people could be exposed to heatwaves by 2090 under a high-warming scenario, more than double than in a low-warming scenario.

While the ability to foresee the effects of climate change on population movements worldwide remains limited, almost half of the people potentially affected by heatwaves (up to 1.3 billion) are projected to live in Southern Asia, a region that has witnessed 59.7 million climate-related displacements in the past decade.

As 2023 marks yet another hottest year on record, the impacts of climate change are increasingly visible on communities from the Horn of Africa to the Pacific Islands.

To address this gap, the GDI is examining the relationship between climate hazards, population density, and socio-economic vulnerability of communities worldwide. These variables show the level of human exposure to climate hazards in the new Climate Mobility Impacts dashboard, an open-access interactive tool launched today on the Migration Data Portal.

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*Low and high warming scenarios represent different future trajectories in greenhouse gas concentrations, leading to a global temperature rise of likely below 2°C and of 3–4°C by 2100, respectively.